Global Fertilizer Market Forecast for 2026: Key Drivers and Trends

The global fertilizer market is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by a complex mix of energy price fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and the evolving trade landscape. These macroeconomic factors are reshaping the very foundations of the fertilizer market, with far-reaching implications for global agricultural production.

Key Economic Forces Reshaping the Global Fertilizer Market

1. Geopolitical Conflicts and Trade Restructuring

The global fertilizer trade is experiencing deep restructuring due to the continuous evolution of sanctions and tariff policies. A significant shift occurred in late 2025 when the United States decided to lift sanctions on Belarus, a major potash producer, thereby re-opening access to the American market after years of restrictions.

In the past year, tariff policies continued to push potash prices higher. In the first half of 2025, global potash prices rose by $5–10 per ton each month, and even after some tariffs were lifted, market prices remained resilient. This suggests that market participants have embedded higher price expectations into long-term trading strategies.

Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions, some critical supply relationships remain stable. For instance, Russia continues to hold a significant position in the global nitrogen fertilizer market. In 2025, Russia supplied 17% of Brazil's urea demand, showcasing the resilience of this key supply link.

Meanwhile, countries like Brazil have adjusted their fertilizer import structures in response to these changes. In 2025, Brazil's ammonium sulfate imports rose by 28%, while urea imports decreased by 7%, signaling a shift towards flexible sourcing to navigate supply limitations imposed by geopolitical factors.

2. Energy Costs and Their Impact on Fertilizer Production

The continued volatility of natural gas prices presents a fundamental economic challenge to nitrogen fertilizer production. Regional differences in energy costs have become a decisive factor in the competitive positioning of global producers. The expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports has intensified the pressure on pricing structures, especially in regions dependent on pipeline gas for production.

This energy cost dynamic not only increases production pressures but also influences the geographical investment in new fertilizer production capacities. Producers with low-cost energy advantages will maintain a significant competitive edge in the global market.

Regional Market Developments

1. Changing Demand in the Asia-Pacific Region

The Asia-Pacific region remains a major driver of global fertilizer price dynamics, accounting for 49.6% of global fertilizer consumption with a market value of $110.43 billion. The evolving demand patterns in this region have profound implications for global pricing.

China, the world's largest consumer and producer of fertilizers, continues to play a critical role in the global supply-demand structure. To ensure food security, China plans to limit the export of high-phosphate fertilizers until August 2026. This policy adjustment has kept prices for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and calcium superphosphate firm.

Meanwhile, India's agricultural intensification continues to drive structural growth in fertilizer demand, providing ongoing support to market prices. With expanding arable land and increased nutrient application per hectare, India is set to remain a key long-term growth engine for global fertilizer demand.

2. Transformation of the European Market

The European fertilizer market is undergoing a profound structural transformation driven by sustainability initiatives and carbon pricing mechanisms. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is reshaping market dynamics by giving a competitive advantage to low-carbon production sources. High-carbon production sources may see delivery costs increase by 5%–15%, weakening their competitiveness in the European market.

Additionally, Europe's commitment to sustainable farming practices is accelerating the adoption of organic and biobased fertilizers, with annual growth rates of 8%–12%. While these products still represent a small share of the market, their strong growth highlights Europe’s commitment to structural agricultural adjustments.

3. Fertilizer Import Dependency in Latin America

Latin America’s heavy dependence on fertilizer imports makes it particularly susceptible to price fluctuations and supply disruptions. Brazil, for example, has been forced to shift to lower-concentration alternatives when high-content products became restricted due to geopolitical tensions. In 2025, Brazil's calcium phosphate imports hit a historic high of 3.2 million tons, up by 20%, while monoammonium phosphate (MAP) imports decreased to 3.1 million tons, the lowest level since 2016.

The region's agricultural credit constraints also limit farmers' purchasing power, causing delayed fertilizer purchases and shifting product mixes towards lower-cost alternatives, further amplifying fertilizer market volatility.

Key Changes in Fertilizer Categories

1. Shifts in Nitrogen Fertilizer Demand

Due to supply constraints and price dynamics, the competitive landscape between urea and ammonium sulfate has shifted significantly. Ammonium sulfate is expanding its market share, thanks to its more attractive pricing and broader purchasing channels. As the production capacity of Iran, Venezuela, and Russia is constrained, global urea supply has been significantly weakened, pushing prices higher. This shift has made ammonium sulfate an increasingly important nitrogen source, especially in sulfur-deficient soils.

However, when sulfur prices are high (e.g., over $530 per ton), this competitive advantage diminishes, impacting its market competitiveness.

2. Phosphate Fertilizer Supply Chain Reshaping

The phosphate fertilizer market is undergoing a fundamental supply chain restructuring due to export restrictions and the risks of over-concentrated supply sources. China's temporary export restrictions on phosphate fertilizers have created a duopoly between Morocco and Russia, amplifying the global supply concentration risks and encouraging buyers to diversify their sources through product substitution.

The rising trade volume of ordinary calcium superphosphate is a clear indicator of this trend. Unlike MAP and calcium superphosphate, which have limited supply sources, ordinary calcium superphosphate has a broader geographic procurement base, making it more attractive to buyers seeking to reduce supply concentration risks.

3. Potash Fertilizer Trade Flow Restructuring

With the US lifting sanctions on Belarus, the potash fertilizer market is undergoing a significant reshuffling of trade flows. Belarus's re-entry into the global market provides a new supply channel for Latin America, diversifying the regional procurement landscape and potentially lowering costs. This shift marks a significant change in the global geography of potash fertilizer trade.

Global Fertilizer Market Forecast

Despite short-term market volatility, the fertilizer industry is expected to maintain strong growth resilience across major regional markets. Looking ahead, the global fertilizer market is projected to reach $222.42 billion in 2026, with a 2.7% annual compound growth rate through 2035. Specific regional forecasts include:

Asia-Pacific: $110.43 billion, with a 3.0% CAGR through 2035

North America: $45.2 billion, with a 2.6% CAGR through 2035

Europe: $38.7 billion, with a 2.6% CAGR through 2035

In conclusion, the fertilizer market in 2026 will continue to face challenges driven by geopolitical tensions, energy price fluctuations, and trade realignments. However, the industry is expected to remain robust, with strong growth in key regions driven by structural changes in agricultural demand, sustainability initiatives, and evolving trade dynamics. Companies that can adapt to these changes and manage risks effectively will be best positioned to thrive in the evolving global fertilizer landscape.